8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Aug 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/09/2005

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About this Release

AUGUST KEY FIGURES

		Aug 05	Jul 05 to Aug 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 218.6	0.5
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 237.0	0.6

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

AUGUST KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in August 2005. This follows increases of 0.5% in each of the three previous months.
In August 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate in all states, with the largest increases occurring in Western Australia, Tasmania (both +0.9%), Queensland (+0.8%), South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.6%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.6% in August 2005. This follows a decrease of 0.1% in July and an increase of 1.1% in June 2005.
All states had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate in August 2005 with the largest increases occurring in Tasmania (+2.2%), the Northern Territory (+1.9%), the Australian Capital Territory (+1.4%) and Western Australia (+1.3%).
The Food retailing (+1.1%), Department stores (+0.5%), Clothing and soft good retailing (+1.6%) and Household good retailing (+0.7%) industries had increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate for August 2005.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 0.4% in August 2005 compared with July 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 0.8%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) was unchanged.
Australian turnover increased by 4.6% in August 2005 compared with August 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 6.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 2.4%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for August 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16 678.0	120.9
Change from preceding month ($m)	-72.3	45.3
% change from preceding month (%)	-0.4	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate growth in the trend for six months with Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services having had moderate or strong growth in each of these months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for six months. Western Australia has had six months of strong growth and New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia have had at least five months of moderate or strong growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

After four months of weak trend growth there has been moderate growth for the past two months. Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least three months of moderate or strong growth, while New South Wales has had a decline in the trend estimate for four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been five months of moderate growth in the trend. Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth for the past seven, four and eight months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been five months of moderate growth in the trend. Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least three months of strong growth. New South Wales and Victoria have had weak growth for three and two months respectively, while the trend estimate for South Australia has declined for the last seven months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for the last four months. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for seven, four and four months respectively. South Australia and Tasmania have had strong growth for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate has been in decline for ten months. New South Wales (14 months), Victoria (two months), Queensland and Western Australia (both ten months) have had a decline in the trend estimate.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate growth for five months. Over the last four months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for three months. Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had at least five months of moderate or strong growth. In contrast, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for two and ten months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There have been ten months of weak trend growth. There has been moderate to strong growth in Food retailing for five months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing have had weak to moderate growth for at least six months. All other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months.

VICTORIA

After four months of moderate growth in the trend estimate there has been weak growth for two months. In the last two months Food retailing, Department stores, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have had weak or moderate growth in the trend. All other industries have had a decline or no change for these two months.

QUEENSLAND

After four months of moderate growth in the trend there has been strong growth for two months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for three, seven, four and eight months respectively. Food retailing has had moderate growth for six months while all other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate trend growth for three months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth for one, four, four and six months respectively. In contrast, Household good retailing has had a decline in the trend estimate for seven months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend for five months. Food retailing, Department stores and Household good retailing have had strong growth for at least three months.

TASMANIA

There has been strong growth in the trend for two months. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for one, eight, three and six months respectively.